In 2004 Wired editor Chris Anderson coined the term “the long tail” when describing an emerging business model built around the digital distribution of products – using the online sale of music as the prime model. He claimed selling “less of more” would become the new paradigm for many businesses. Blockbusters would matter less while consumers would be able to chose from an easily available, ever-expanding variety of content, which would then become the main source of profit for companies and producers. In short, the long tail marks a democratizing of distribution, where consumer choice would reign supreme.
Anderson’s assertion was quickly accepted as fact in the mainstream, where technologically deterministic, utopian claims of democratic progress have always been applauded while more skeptically-oriented analyses that stress socioeconomic continuities are ignored or rejected. I maintain that techno-utopian notions like Anderson’s long tail are best seen as ideologically-based, maintaining a belief that technology, of its own accord and absent human subjectivity, will expand democracy through a process of opening channels of communication. When it comes to reinforcing prevailing ideology, all that’s needed are fashionable claims with little evidence.
Long tail theory fits this archetype. It’s been subject to little scrutiny or empirical analysis – until now. British researchers Will Page, Andrew Bud and Gary Eggleton have recently unveiled their conclusions of a scientific study of online music sales encompasing more than the 13 million tracts available: verdict, the long tail looks very short indeed. As Patrick Foster at the Times (UK) sums up:
for the online singles market, 80 per cent of all revenue came from around 52,000 tracks. For albums, the figures were even more stark. Of the 1.23 million available, only 173,000 were ever bought, meaning 85 per cent did not sell a single copy all year.
More research is needed, but these findings don’t bode well for the techno-utopians. It points to the fact that just because an idea sounds well and fits into our preconceived notions, it is anything but truth.
